Hrvatske vode
 
Povijesne poplave duž rijeke Dunav od 1021. godine do danas
Historical floods along the Danube River from 1012 to the present

Stevan Prohaska1, Pavla Pekarova2, Aleksandra Ilić3, Milena Jelovac1

Sažetak/Abstract: 

U radu su kronološki prikazane sve značajnije poplave koje su se događale duž Dunava od srednjeg vijeka do danas. Prikaz započinje prvom evidentiranom poplavom iz 1012. godine i završava 2013. godinom. Imajući u vidu različite izvore podataka koji su korišteni, za opis poplava u prošlosti pri izradi ovoga prikaza obuhvaćeno je povijesno razdoblje dulje od 1100 godina podijeljeno na tri karakteristična razdoblja: razdoblje 1012.-1500. (stari vijek), kada su poplave ocijenjene na temelju materijala iz povijesne arhive korištenjem originalnih rukopisa, isječaka iz novina, pisanih kronika, formalnih pisama, karata i fotografija; razdoblje 1501.- 1820., kada su poplave procijenjene hidrauličkom rekonstrukcijom tragova (oznaka) zabilježenih maksimalnih razina vode na starim zgradama, vjerskim objektima i sl. te razdoblje od 1821. do danas, kada su poplave sagledane na temelju službenih podataka opažanja i mjerenja državnih hidrometeoroloških službi u podunavskim zemljama. Iz evidentiranog niza značajnih poplava duž Dunava izdvojene su one koje su, prema vrijednostima temeljnih parametara hidrograma velikih voda, maksimalnoj ordinati hidrograma – Qmax (m3/s) i zapremini poplavnog vala W (106 m3), iznad vjerojatnosti premašivanja:

P {Qmax ≥ qmax,p) ∩ (Wmax ≥ wmax,p)} = 1.0%

Ove se poplave nazivaju povijesnim poplavama. U radu su prikazana odgovarajuća povratna razdoblja T(Qmax ∩ Wmax) svih registriranih povijesnih poplava duž Dunava, od izvora do brane HE Đerdap, za razmatrano višegodišnje razdoblje, od 1012. godine do danas.

 

The paper provides a chronological overview of all significant floods that have occurred along the Danube River from the Middle Ages to the present time. The overview begins with the first recorded flood in 1012 and ends with 2013. Considering different data sources that were used, for the description of floods in the past we used a historical period longer than 1100, divided into three characteristic periods: the 1012-1500 period (Antiquity), for which floods were assessed based on materials from the historical archives, such as original manuscripts, newspaper excerpts, written chronicles, formal letters, maps and photographs; the 1501-1820 period, for which floods were assessed based on the hydraulic reconstruction of traces (marks) of recorded maximum water levels on old buildings, religious buildings, etc.; and the period from 1821 to the present, for which floods were assessed based on official data and measurements of state hydrometeorological services in the Danube countries. From the recorded series of significant floods along the Danube, we have separated those that are, according to the values of the basic parameters of flood hydrographs – maximum hydrograph ordinate – Qmax (m3/s) and flood wave volume W (106 m3), above the exceedance probability:

P {Qmax ≥ qmax,p) (Wmax ≥ wmax,p)} = 1.0%

These floods are called historical floods. The paper presents the relevant return periods T (Qmax ∩ Wmax) for all recorded historical floods along the Danube, from its source to the dam of the HPP Đerdap, for which the multiannual period from 1012 to the present was considered.

Kategorija: 
Pregledni članak / Review Paper
Ključne riječi/Key words: 

povijesna poplava, poplavni val, hidrogram velikih voda, maksimalna ordinata, zapremina vala, vjerojatnosti premašivanja, povratno razdoblje.

historical floods, flood wave, flood hydrograph, maximum ordinate, wave volume, exceedance

probability, return period

Podaci o autorima/Authors affiliations: 

1Institut za vodoprivredu „Jaroslav Černi“, Jaroslava Černog 80, 11000 Beograd, Srbija  stevan.prohaska@jcerni.rs

 

2Institute of Hydrology, Slovac Academy of Sciences, Dubracska cesta 9, 84104 Bratislava, Slovačka

 

3Građevinsko-arhitektonski fakultet, Aleksandra Medvedeva 14, 18000 Niš, Srbija

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